Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Longhorns 1:00 PM ET

Saturday – Big XII Championship – Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX

Texas is just one win away from the Rose Bowl and the BCS Championship and a likely showdown against USC for the national championship. The Longhorns can not get ahead of themselves as they will be facing a Colorado team that has struggled over its last two games and really has nothing to lose in this spot. The pressure is squarely on Texas but the Longhorns have been dominating all season so a hiccup here is very unlikely. Texas has won 18 straight games with only four of those being single-digit victories.

The Buffaloes backed into this championship game thanks to an Iowa St. loss to Kansas in overtime. The offense has sputtered, scoring only 19 points in its last two games after averaging 30.3 ppg through its first nine games. Colorado is 62nd in total offense because of a rushing game that has been non-existent over the second half of the season. The Buffaloes have averaged only 84.7 ypg over their last six games after putting up 165 ypg over their first five games.

The passing game is where this team is strong but that didn’t show last Friday against Nebraska where Colorado threw for a season low 159 yards and averaged a season low eight yards per catch. It was just the second time this season that the Buffaloes were held to fewer than 300 total yards and the first time happened to come against the Longhorns. Texas held them to 237 total yards as the Longhorns jumped out to a 298-0 lead and never looked back.

Texas scored touchdowns on its first five possessions of that game and the damage was done through the air. The Longhorns threw for a season high 337 yards as the running game was held in check. Texas rushed for 145 yards, its second lowest output of the season but that is where the Buffaloes excel. Colorado is second in the country in rushing defense, allowing only 79.5 ypg and 2.4 ypc. The 145 yards allowed to Texas was a season high but Texas rushed the ball for just 3.1 ypc.

The Longhorns finished 3rd in rushing offense in the country so it will be strength against strength once again. Texas will likely try to exploit the Buffaloes passing defense that is 95th in the country in yards allowed. Colorado is ranked 30th in passing efficiency defense but Vince Young is the third most efficient quarterback in the country and that shows in the first meeting where he completed an astounding 25 of 29 passes. Colorado has to find a way to control the clock as the defense was on the field for nearly 39 minutes in the first meeting.

Texas was a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season but 3-2 on the road which included a 1-2 ATS mark when giving three or more touchdowns. The Longhorns averaged exactly 50 ppg in their four Big XII road games but Colorado has not allowed that many points all season long. The problem for the Buffaloes is that they averaged just 22.5 ppg in their conference road games and they finished the season just 1-4 ATS on the road. Texas surpassed the total is nine of 11 games this season while Colorado was 6-5 over but four of those overs came at home.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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