NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Tuesday, December 20th 8:00 PM ET - Cajun Field - Lafayette, LA

Arkansas St. Indians vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Arkansas St. backed into the Sun Belt Conference Championship thanks to a loss by UL-Monroe in its final game of the season. As Sun Belt Champions, the Indians are not as dominating of a team as North Texas was the last four years. Winning the close games is what champions do but there were some close calls. They won four of their five conference games by a touchdown or less so a 5-2 finish could easily have been 2-5. The Indians played the easiest schedule in 1-A this season.

Southern Mississippi will be making its second straight trip to the New Orleans Bowl after finished 6-5 for the second consecutive season. The Golden Eagles were supposed to be the class of the C-USA East Division and it looked as though the title game was a given but losses in three of four games by a combined nine points dashed those dreams. A 17-point loss to Tulsa was the only loss by double digits and despite winning its final game of the season over Tulane, the motivation of this team is a huge question mark.

After scoring 215 points in its first six games, Arkansas St. managed only 60 points in its final five games. It ended the season ranked 69th in scoring offense and 59th in total offense. The Indians do bring a solid rushing game, the 2nd best in the Sun Belt and 24th overall in the country. They surpassed 200 yards on the ground in four of their 1-A games but only once in their final five games. However, that type of rushing game could be a problem for Southern Mississippi who finished 78th in the country in rushing defense.

The Golden Eagles did not have the same stifling defense of years past but the offense was good enough to bail it out most of the time. They scored 21 or more points nine times and their 29.5 ppg was good for 41st in the nation. There is no running game to speak of as they finished 106th in the country in rushing offense and gained over 100 yards on the ground in only five games on the year. Southern Mississippi was outgained in seven of its final eight games including six times on the ground.

The Indians were just 1-5 on the road this season and 2-4 against the number in those games. They covered only once in four tries as underdogs with the one win coming as 24.5-point dogs at Oklahoma St. The over came though in seven of 10 lined games but the recent streak of no offense is a concern for that run to continue. The Golden Eagles dropped their final three games against the number and were only 2-4 ATS on the season when laying points. The under was 4-2 when the posted total was 50 points or more.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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