Rutgers and Louisville collide in Derby City for this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football on ESPN. The Cardinals are priced as 22.5-point home-favorites and the posted total is a towering 65.5.

Rutgers comes in at 6-3 (SU) overall and 3-1 (SU) on the road, but is just 3-5 (ATS) overall and 1-3 (ATS) when away from Piscataway. The Scarlet Knights had won three straight games to become bowl eligible prior to last Saturday’s mistake filled 45-31 home setback against South Florida.

That final score is a bit misleading, as Rutgers outgained the Bulls on the day but had a whopping six turnovers and managed zero takeaways. Scarlet Knight QB Ryan Hart committed five of those six turnovers, two of which were returned the other way for touchdowns.

Nevertheless, this is a much better Rutgers team than most would think. The Knights have put up 30+ points in four of six conference tilts, while producing better than 29 points per game overall and slaughtered Pittsburgh 37-29 earlier this season.

The win over the Panthers is somewhat interesting as a point of reference considering the Knights are priced as a larger underdog tonight than Pitt +20 at Louisville on this same field last Thursday night.

This is also a tremendously strong situation for Rutgers. The Red Knights are now firmly in the green at 15-5 (ATS) their last twenty as an underdog. And even though the Knights fell last week, they are 10-2 (ATS) their past twelve coming off a division loss, including 9-1 (ATS) coming off a double digit division loss.

Meanwhile, Louisville is in off a narrow 42-20 home-win and cover as a twenty-point favorite vs. Pittsburgh. The Cards outgained the Cats by 209 yards overall, but still needed a touchdown run with just 40 seconds on the clock to get in front of the number.

The win puts the Cardinals at 6-2 (SU) and 5-3 (ATS) for the season overall and have been near flawless in their own nest this season. In fact, the Red Birds have snatched the green in all four of their tilts at Papa John’s Stadium this season behind a dizzying 58.8 points per game.

And no, that is not a misprint: The Cardinals offense had eclipsed 60 points in all three home games (63, 61 and 69) prior to scoring “just” 42 points last week. Louisville is now third in the nation in scoring behind only undefeated USC and Texas, along with Texas Tech. .

Dating back further, the Cardinals have soared to an incredible 10-0 (SU & ATS) record their past ten in Derby City overall despite being favored by double digits in every single one of these games! Louisville is additionally 10-2 (ATS) its past twelve as a favorite of -20 or higher and 16-5 (ATS) in its past twenty-one games on the board overall.

Good luck tonight!

William Foote is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/William_Foote.htm

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